Political strategist Greg Valliere predicted Donald Trump will win Delaware’s Republican primary this week when he spoke to a group of investors at Wilmington Country Club last Tuesday.
Valliere, who is a regular guest on Fox, CNN and CBS, came to address the election and its investment implications for Westover Capital Advisors of Wilmington. He said the rise of Trump plays off the anxiety of Americans who feel their real disposable income is stagnant.
His rundown on the election:
- A Trump victory could shake the markets. “The markets hate uncertainty, and Donald Trump would be the mother of all uncertainty,” Valliere said.
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the candidate best poised to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election.
- It used to be said that Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. couldn’t win because he makes too many gaffes, but Donald Trump has considerably lowered the bar. Biden probably could win against any Republican if he were in the mix. Biden is now back at work following the death of his son Beau, Valliere said, but he would have to move by July if he were interested in running. Clinton would not want to give up her spot. “The train probably has left the station. I don’t totally rule out something dramatic. And I think Joe Biden probably could win.”
He said Trump has a chance — not a great chance — of beating Clinton due to several factors:
- Further incidents of terrorism could tip things in Trump’s favor because his numbers spike up when talk turns to terrorism.
- Recent election history runs against Clinton. Except for Ronald Reagan followed by George H.W. Bush, parties usually alternate after two terms.
- Bernie Sanders has painted Clinton as the candidate from Goldman Sachs.
- Bill Clinton’s sexual history, which Trump has already jumped on in an Instagram attack.
- Hillary Clinton’s own high negative ratings.
- The investigations surrounding her, especially the e-mail investigation, which could lead to an indictment before the election. “It will probably be too late for Joe Biden to jump in at that point,” Valliere said.
Valliere said a Trump victory would affect Wall Street because he is calling for a transaction tax, he is critical of Wall Street and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, he could start a trade war with China, and the cost of his proposed tax cuts must be factored in. However, he said Trump could be a catalyst for tax reform.
He predicted the next president would go after the “low-hanging fruit” of tax reform — luring American corporations with $2.1 trillion stashed overseas to bring it home.
Valliere predicted a Clinton win would mean more government through regulation and he suggested she could have a chance to appoint up to four Supreme Court judges.
He said the “political kryptonite” most candidates don’t discuss is: how do we pay for things we can’t pay for.